Friday, September 7, 2007

Introducing: Rick Noriega, Frontrunner.

Thats right. Rick leads the a new IVR poll in general, but also in every demographic subset of gender and ethnicity (note: before Reichstadt's withdrawal). Over half polled are undecided, but of those with an opinion, Noriega takes 58% (Watts 30%, Richstadt 12%). (graphic from Burnt Orange Report). This from IVR:

Noriega was the clear leader among those who had a preference, with 27% to Watts' 14% and Reichstadt's 6%. The Houston area was strong for Noriega with about 50% of the vote despite 38% undecided. The Corpus Christi area had similar numbers, but with Watts in the lead. San Antonio and DFW were about 2/3 undecided, with Watts and Noriega about even. Austin was also 2/3 undecided, but with a 7-1 lead for Noriega. El Paso was close to the state average, while the LRGV gave Noriega a 40% to 23% lead with 34% undecided.

Excluding undecided and breaking the results into subsets by combination of gender and ethnicity, and then comparing Noriega's percentage to Watts' percentage, Noriega led in every category. His strongest showing was among Latino women, who gave him 2.9 'votes' for every one of Watts'. The closest subset was white women, who gave Noriega 1.2 times as many 'votes.' This was also the subset with the highest undecided - 58%. The lowest undecided was among Latino men, with 39%, who gave Noriega his second smallest lead with 1.6x. Many of these slices contain very small samples, so take them with a grain of salt.

8/29-30, 489 polled, 4.5% MoE
Combine that with ActBlue's Activity Report for August:
August is over so it's time for a monthly stats round-up of what's been happening in Democratic online fundraising over ActBlue. Let's dive into some data- (change from prior month in parentheses).

Total Amount Contributed: $1,039,376.72 (+$396,938)
Total # of Contributions: 14,648 (+5,004)
Average Contribution Size: $70.96 (+$4.35)

Total # of Recipient Campaigns & Committees: 419 (+ 67)

Here are the Top 10 Recipients by amounts received through ActBlue in August.

Name Amount Office

John Edwards $214,180.51 President

Darcy Burner $105,202.18 WA-08

Niki Tsongas $48,616.00 MA-05

Rick Noriega $39,696.13 TX-Sen

Jamie Eldridge $30,122.35 MA-05

Jeff Merkley $27,581.67 OR-Sen

Jared Polis $25,153.00 CO-02

Russ Warner $21,118.87 CA-26

San Diego Democratic Party $18,119.00 County

Joe Alioto Veronese $16,505.00 CA-SD-03

Here are the Top 10 Recipients by # of donors through ActBlue in August.
Name Donors Office
John Edwards 3,182 President
Darcy Burner 2,950 WA-08
Rick Noriega 539 TX-Sen
Daniel Biss 358 IL-HD-17
Dennis Kucinich 274 President
Jamie Eldridge 270 MA-05
San Diego Democratic Party 251 County
Jeff Merkley 245 OR-Sen
Al Franken 241 MN-Sen
BlogPAC 216 PAC

And here are the Top 5 fundraising pages by number of donors (excluding pages used by candidates solely to collect contributions directly from campaign websites).

Fundraising Page Raised Donors Avg.

Burn Bush for Burner $87,682.54 2429 $36.09

Blue America '08 $24,525.30 372 $20.00

Blue Majority $16,265.42 349 $23.07

Netroots for Rick Noriega for Senate $30,849.16 324 $95.21

Brotherhood 2.0 for Daniel Biss $1,673.00 210 $7.96

So, There you have it. Rick is scoring in the top four spots in each category. Check out the average donation amount at the Netroots for Rick page: $95.21. That's nearly three times larger than any other average on that top list. Rick's making appearances, sharing his story, and working to make a change. I'm happy to introduce: Rick Noriega, Frontrunner.

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